Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf331…6b86 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate28%38W / 98L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$12
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$13
other 23% −$4
politics 15% $0
sports 11% +$8
economics 4% +$2
crypto 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.2% -16.1% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.3% 28% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 76 -0.6% -10.1% 28% 1% -9.4%
all 136 -1.5% -10.9% 28% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 1% -9.3%
10% -19.4% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses38 / 98
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage477d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $74 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -38%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 −$3 -13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $297 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $210 −$9 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $213 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $113 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $367 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $9 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $221 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $234 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $241 +$2 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $106 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $229 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $179 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $77 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $88 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $106 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $78 −$6 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $84 +$29 +34%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $337 +$3 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $79 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $90 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $156 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $82 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $241 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $20 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $153 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $156 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $73 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $74 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $74 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $76 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $94 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $20 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $64 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $87 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $46 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $55 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $107 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 593 history records