Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F3 0xf333…038c sports 1240 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,081 (-7%) realized −$5,085 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%748W / 491L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$407est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2,160
other 14% −$297
crypto 0% +$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +5.2% -4.8% 58% 54% -12.0%
≤30d 57 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 53% -9.4%
≤90d 1086 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 47% -12.9%
all 1239 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 47% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 47% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 31% -20.9%
15% -29.4% 20% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$5,085
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses748 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$407
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1239 / 1240
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Tommy Paul 70¢ 74¢ $81 $85 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $68 +$14 +20%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $72 −$3 -5%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $53 +$18 +34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $36 +$18 +50%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $120 −$84 -70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $92 +$28 +30%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $222 −$130 -59%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $315 −$94 -30%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $411 −$95 -23%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $644 −$233 -36%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $561 +$82 +15%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $470 +$92 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $355 +$115 +32%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $424 −$69 -16%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $354 +$70 +20%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $282 +$73 +26%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $278 +$3 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $180 +$98 +54%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $156 +$24 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $130 +$26 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $179 −$50 -28%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $141 +$38 +27%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $117 +$25 +21%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $79 +$38 +48%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $46 +$33 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $57 −$12 -20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $161 −$103 -64%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $137 +$24 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $552 −$169 -31%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $246 +$56 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $302 −$52 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $239 +$62 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $255 −$16 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 −$35 -71%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $199 −$8 -4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $218 +$31 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $64 +$50 +79%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $67 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $45 +$22 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $118 +$27 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $123 −$5 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $166 −$43 -26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $148 +$19 +13%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $122 +$26 +21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $83 +$39 +48%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $85 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $278 −$193 -70%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $356 −$78 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $82 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $68 6h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta SELL Facundo Acosta 75¢ $68 6h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Facundo Acosta 78¢ $72 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 74¢ $71 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 54¢ $53 15h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 94¢ $53 15h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $36 16h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 15¢ $33 16h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 16¢ $3 16h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $120 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $92 20h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 24¢ $92 20h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 56¢ $222 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 42¢ $222 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $315 22h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 55¢ $315 22h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $411 25h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 54¢ $411 25h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 83¢ $644 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Alexander Zverev 99¢ $643 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 86¢ $561 28h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 95¢ $562 28h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $470 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $355 40h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 70¢ $355 40h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $424 47h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $424 47h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 83¢ $354 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.90 · official $84.90 (match) · 3500 history records