Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf333…ba41 other 819 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13,350 (-7%) realized −$13,012 · open −$338
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%38W / 764L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day107.2pace
Fees−$566est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$4,088
14 days−$6,288
30 days−$11,529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2,102
other 21% −$4,081
politics 13% −$1,473
sports 11% −$1,237
finance 10% −$1,387
tech 9% −$1,229
crypto 3% −$175
culture 1% −$106
economics 1% −$42
weather 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -11.7% -20.1% 2% 1% -15.6%
≤30d 799 -10.4% -18.9% 5% 0% -14.7%
≤90d 802 -10.3% -18.9% 5% 0% -14.7%
all 802 -10.3% -18.9% 5% 0% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 0% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 0% -22.9%
15% -33.7% 0% -30.3%
20% -40.2% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$13,012
Unrealized−$338
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses38 / 764
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$566
Open positions17
Markets (closed)802 / 819
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$248
Trades / day107.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 802 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 20¢ $82 $41 −$41 (-50%)
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? No 85¢ 76¢ $32 $29 −$4 (-11%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $52 $25 −$27 (-53%)
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 46¢ $35 $19 −$16 (-47%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 95¢ 9¢ $190 $18 −$172 (-90%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? Yes 55¢ 43¢ $21 $17 −$5 (-22%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 89¢ 57¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Yes 71¢ 30¢ $36 $16 −$21 (-57%)
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 28¢ $21 $14 −$7 (-35%)
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? No 38¢ 27¢ $19 $13 −$5 (-29%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 67¢ 46¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-32%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election? No 45¢ 34¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? Yes 49¢ 3¢ $9 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day? Yes 48¢ 2¢ $15 $1 −$15 (-96%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $599 −$33 -5%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $40 −$7 -18%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $35 −$4 -11%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $8B in 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$4 -13%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 16 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $44 −$7 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 6? Jun 11 $21 −$14 -68%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 11 $37 −$31 -83%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $146 −$90 -61%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $193 −$193 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $294 −$86 -29%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $270 −$270 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 11 $114 −$9 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 11 $79 −$22 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 11 $327 −$30 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $81 −$2 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $1,065 −$111 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $727 −$18 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $1,144 −$65 -6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 11 $35 −$6 -18%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 11 $106 −$7 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1,486 −$46 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 11 $114 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $1,019 −$19 -2%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Jun 11 $0 $0 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 11 $488 −$63 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $104 −$4 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $390 −$283 -72%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $183 −$123 -67%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $71 −$3 -4%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.15B? Jun 11 $47 −$12 -25%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -14%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 11 $456 −$39 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 11 $477 −$12 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $603 −$10 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 21m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $135 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 77¢ $63 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 77¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $21 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 71¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 55¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 55¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL Yes 31¢ $33 2h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 3h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3h
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? SELL No 78¢ $17 3h
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? BUY No 85¢ $51 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.22 · official $241.06 (match) · 3500 history records