Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf337…684f crypto 286 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%149W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$35
14 days+$31
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.6% +12.7% 67% 67% +14.5%
≤30d 11 +34.0% +21.2% 73% 73% +9.2%
≤90d 286 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 52% -11.1%
all 286 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 52% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 52% -11.1%
10% -21.0% 52% -19.6%
15% -28.7% 52% -27.4%
20% -35.7% 52% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses149 / 137
Open positions0
Markets (closed)286 / 286
History coverage86d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 286 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$39 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $44 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$38 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$81 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$38 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $45 +$39 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $46 +$38 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $67 +$58 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $44 +$39 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 05 $49 +$34 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $81 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 18 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12AM ET Apr 23 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET Apr 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9PM ET Apr 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 22 $20 +$16 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 11PM ET Apr 22 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$15 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 19 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 19 $20 +$15 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 1AM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7AM ET Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 17 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 16 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 3PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7PM ET Apr 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 3PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 2PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 1PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2PM ET Apr 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $84 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $45 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $46 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $67 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $44 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $49 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $81 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 37d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 60d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 60d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 11PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 62d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 62d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 871 history records