Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf338…49df other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%5W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$45
sports 23% −$21
politics 10% −$8
culture 5% −$6
economics 5% −$6
crypto 4% −$4
world 2% −$3
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses5 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage142d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $701 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $505 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $124 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $431 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $336 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $128 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $288 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $450 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $368 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $927 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $289 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $316 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 40m
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $54 2h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 8h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 12h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 23h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $54 25h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 28h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 31h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 45h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 47h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1442 history records