Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf33c…455c other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$124 (-2%) realized −$120 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%32W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$65
sports 25% +$2
crypto 15% +$1
politics 14% −$68
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 -3.1% -12.3% 86% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 36 -1.7% -11.1% 89% 0% -11.4%
all 37 -2.5% -11.8% 86% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -11.5%
10% -20.3% 0% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$27 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$1,201
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses32 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage111d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $869 $866 −$3 (-0%)
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $281 $281 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $924 $0 -0%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $281 $0 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $280 $0 +0%
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $224 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $166 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $170 −$63 -37%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $231 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $141 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Poll" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Clarkson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fina Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election Jun 06 $202 −$68 -34%
Will BNB reach $800 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in May? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $999 +$1 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Beijing" this week? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Lied" this week? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this w May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Fiscal" this week? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 05 $527 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2 May 04 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 29 $30 $0 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $3 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $869 1h
Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL The World 100¢ $924 35h
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $281 2d
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $281 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY The World 100¢ $624 9d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY The World 100¢ $300 9d
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Keldon Johnson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $45 11d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $224 15d
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $280 15d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $106 15d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $231 16d
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $56 16d
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $141 16d
Will Trump say "Poll" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 16d
Will Jordan Clarkson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fina SELL No 100¢ $101 17d
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? SELL No 100¢ $30 17d
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 17d
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 18d
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 18d
Will Jordan Clarkson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fina BUY No 100¢ $101 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,201.13 · official $1,201.13 (match) · 182 history records