Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf33d…80e1 crypto 1234 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-0%) realized −$107 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1201W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day74.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$29
14 days−$198
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$139
other 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 2% -9.8%
≤30d 1231 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 1% -10.0%
≤90d 1231 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 1% -10.0%
all 1231 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$29 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1201 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1231 / 1234
History coverage17d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day74.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 0¢ 53¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.24 · official $0.02 · 2435 history records