Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf33f…287d sports 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$144 (+10%) realized +$145 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate80%69W / 17L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$77
14 days+$110
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$115
other 3% +$20
world 0% −$5
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +6.9% -3.3% 78% 75% -2.3%
≤30d 79 +9.6% -0.9% 81% 78% -1.0%
≤90d 82 +7.5% -2.7% 79% 77% -1.4%
all 86 +9.2% -1.2% 80% 77% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 77% -1.1%
10% -10.6% 58% -10.6%
15% -19.3% 34% -19.2%
20% -27.2% 16% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses69 / 17
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage230d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 80¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 73¢ 64¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$12 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$6 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 +$15 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$13 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $55 −$55 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $18 +$6 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$5 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $35 +$20 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $45 +$5 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $55 +$19 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$7 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$10 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$8 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$10 +38%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $35 +$7 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$6 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $55 +$5 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 +$6 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $25 +$10 +40%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$4 +29%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $13 +$2 +18%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $15 +$3 +17%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $10 +$2 +23%
IK Oddevold vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$3 +60%
IK Oddevold vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $10 +$2 +23%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $11 +$2 +18%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $15 +$3 +18%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $7 +$2 +31%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +26%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $14 +$2 +14%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $10 +$4 +42%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $15 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $15 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $15 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $15 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $45 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $20 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $55 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $18 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $25 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $35 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $5 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $45 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $55 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $40 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $50 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $40 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $45 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $15 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.96 · official $38.88 (match) · 163 history records