Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf341…9bd8 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$357 (-5%) realized −$365 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%63W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$76
14 days+$204
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$450
other 39% −$13
crypto 18% +$27
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 39% -5.0%
≤30d 59 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 44% -5.3%
≤90d 114 -0.7% -10.1% 44% 43% -17.7%
all 150 -9.2% -17.9% 42% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 41% -15.2%
10% -25.7% 39% -23.3%
15% -32.9% 38% -30.7%
20% -39.5% 35% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$38 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$683
Realized−$365
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses63 / 87
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions14
Markets (closed)150 / 164
History coverage368d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 66¢ 66¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 37¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$138 +449%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$40 -80%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $40 +$4 +9%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$9 -56%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$71 +345%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -42%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $118 +$73 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$38 -91%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$67 +66%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$8 -68%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$14 +55%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$71 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $48 +$32 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $12 +$15 +124%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 +$24 +120%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$15 +44%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$98 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$65 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 66¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 66¢ $35 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 14h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 9¢ $10 14h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $8 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $10 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $19 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $51 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $32 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $17 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $41 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $51 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 82¢ $44 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $40 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.54 · official $682.55 (match) · 432 history records