Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F3 0xf348…e543 sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$13,780 (+7%) realized +$13,860 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%161W / 146L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,202per market
Trades / day140.9pace
Fees−$1,816est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$10,305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+86.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 +118.3% +97.5% 42% 31% -23.4%
≤30d 307 +105.9% +86.3% 52% 33% -11.6%
≤90d 307 +105.9% +86.3% 52% 33% -11.6%
all 307 +105.9% +86.3% 52% 33% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +86.3% 33% -11.6%
10% +68.5% 26% -20.1%
15% ← realistic here +52.2% 23% -27.8%
20% +37.3% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +155% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$229 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$13,860
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses161 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,816
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 157
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$1,202
Trades / day140.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 96¢ 100¢ $259 $270 +$10 (+4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 40¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Jun 17 $0 +$255 +174689%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $107 −$90 -84%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 17 $4 −$127 -3586%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Walczaki (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 17 $49 +$119 +245%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Jun 17 $48 −$32 -66%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MOUZ NXT - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 17 $231 −$231 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Tricked (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Online St Jun 17 $376 −$376 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P Jun 17 $84 −$72 -86%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs AaB Esport (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 17 $3 +$329 +11339%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 17 $53 +$35 +66%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Jun 17 $756 −$1,180 -156%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Jun 17 $3 +$191 +5939%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs 1WIN (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs Jun 17 $397 −$397 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $13 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs eLITenergy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Jun 17 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champio Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Beijing Ducks Jun 17 $37 +$447 +1207%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Play Jun 17 $41 +$274 +666%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $127 +$33 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs BESTIA Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $29 +$125 +434%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BIG (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffs Jun 17 $386 −$386 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs m1x (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $61 +$383 +628%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 17 $0 +$51 +142526%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Match Jun 17 $0 −$141 -53989%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Qingdao Eagles Jun 17 $29 +$975 +3342%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - CCT Europe Series # Jun 17 $94 −$100 -107%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Jun 17 $2 −$61 -3168%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Jun 17 $64 −$273 -428%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs AaB Esport (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 17 $7 −$189 -2624%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 17 $65 −$154 -239%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Grou Jun 17 $14 +$192 +1413%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $523 −$573 -110%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs BIG Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea Jun 17 $110 −$279 -254%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $283 38m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $24 39m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $12 39m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $91 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $679 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $17 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $15 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $86 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $71 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $124 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $144 42m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $18 43m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $155 57m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $1 58m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $1 58m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $185 58m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $36 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $129 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $149 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $155 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $15 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $205 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $264 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.74 · official $269.74 (match) · 3500 history records