Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf349…3398 crypto 449 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,157 (-17%) realized −$1,147 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%105W / 342L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$290
14 days−$335
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,112
sports 10% −$300
economics 0% −$25
world 0% −$4
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -21.0% -28.6% 26% 26% -37.3%
≤30d 95 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 24% -32.4%
≤90d 447 -8.9% -17.6% 23% 23% -30.6%
all 447 -8.9% -17.6% 23% 23% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 23% -30.6%
10% -25.5% 23% -37.3%
15% -32.7% 22% -43.3%
20% -39.3% 22% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$14 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1,147
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses105 / 342
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)447 / 449
History coverage56d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$26 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$51 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$32 +604%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$34 +330%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $60 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$15 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$46 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$21 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$30 +283%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $28 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $19 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $32 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.35 · official $17.14 · 864 history records