Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F3 0xf34b…bcb3 sports 307 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$4,943 (+10%) realized +$4,655 · open +$288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%178W / 124L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$722est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,545
7 days+$1,688
14 days+$2,289
30 days+$2,705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.6% -2.6% 54% 54% +9.1%
≤30d 122 +12.4% +1.7% 60% 60% -1.8%
≤90d 302 +10.7% +0.1% 59% 59% -1.6%
all 302 +10.7% +0.1% 59% 59% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 59% -1.6%
10% -9.5% 58% -11.0%
15% -18.2% 52% -19.6%
20% -26.2% 43% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$166 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$2,322
Realized+$4,655
Unrealized+$288
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses178 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$722
Open positions5
Markets (closed)302 / 307
History coverage49d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 37¢ 100¢ $444 $1,199 +$755 (+170%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Vici Gaming 63¢ 100¢ $699 $1,112 +$413 (+59%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 52¢ 50¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner VP.Prodigy 50¢ 0¢ $504 $0 −$504 (-100%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner VP.Prodigy 50¢ 0¢ $376 $0 −$376 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $449 +$225 +50%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $428 +$296 +69%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $358 +$122 +34%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $332 +$308 +93%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $481 +$249 +52%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $294 +$106 +36%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $331 +$99 +30%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $430 +$741 +172%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $158 +$452 +286%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $301 −$301 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $300 +$550 +183%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $303 −$301 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $400 +$400 +100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $345 +$215 +62%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$203 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $64 +$41 +64%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $308 −$308 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $281 −$280 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $463 +$237 +51%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $128 −$126 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $343 −$333 -97%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $285 −$283 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $105 −$104 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $77 +$72 +94%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $95 +$155 +163%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $111 +$89 +79%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $97 −$95 -98%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $186 +$114 +61%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$65 +184%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $233 +$157 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $238 +$99 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $244 −$240 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $229 +$272 +119%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $232 +$138 +60%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $220 +$229 +104%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $235 −$235 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $232 −$229 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $222 +$182 +82%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $221 +$83 +38%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $215 +$145 +67%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $220 +$160 +72%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $202 +$196 +97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $199 +$112 +56%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $205 +$112 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 20¢ $20 55m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 48¢ $72 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $85 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $61 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 62¢ $94 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $127 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $288 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $159 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 35¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 35¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 35¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 35¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 54¢ $320 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 54¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $441 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $170 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,322.21 · official $2,322.21 (match) · 944 history records