Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf34f…b829
other · 16 markets active 1h ago
7.0score
+$25 +42%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage39d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 1 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$15 +437%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $2 +$13 +676%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $4 +$3 +73%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $5 +$8 +157%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% $0
crypto 21% +$12
sports 9% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 59m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $18 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 19d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 38d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 100¢ $7 38d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 38d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 100¢ $13 38d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 57¢ $4 38d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 38¢ $5 38d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 39d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +44.4% +30.7% 50% 50% +101.7%
≤30d 9 +100.9% +81.7% 56% 56% +90.1%
≤90d 15 +61.1% +45.8% 53% 53% +35.4%
all 15 +61.1% +45.8% 53% 53% +35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.8% 53% +35.4%
10% +31.8% 53% +22.4%
15% +19.1% 47% +10.6%
20% +7.4% 47% -0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.68 · official $4.68 (match) · 28 history records