Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf34f…4d6e sports 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-0%) realized −$79 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%146W / 124L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$72
14 days−$78
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$1,040
world 37% −$571
other 23% +$1,534
crypto 0% −$100
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.1% +2.3% 67% 67% -13.2%
≤30d 22 +7.4% -2.8% 55% 55% -12.5%
≤90d 128 -32.6% -39.0% 30% 30% -34.8%
all 270 +1.3% -8.3% 54% 53% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 53% -9.8%
10% -17.1% 46% -18.4%
15% -25.1% 39% -26.3%
20% -32.5% 30% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +30% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$121 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses146 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions7
Markets (closed)270 / 288
History coverage522d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $110 $159 +$49 (+44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $189 $157 −$32 (-17%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Over 57¢ 84¢ $100 $146 +$46 (+46%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 35¢ 23¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-55%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 26¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 +$30 +29%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $152 +$142 +94%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $151 +$50 +33%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $132 +$81 +62%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $152 +$83 +55%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $528 −$266 -50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $250 −$100 -40%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$40 +78%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$60 +60%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $440 −$7 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $152 +$99 +65%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $122 +$104 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? May 26 $350 −$350 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 24 $300 −$154 -51%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 24 $100 −$47 -47%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $100 −$44 -44%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $370 +$331 +90%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $46 +$71 +156%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $86 +$55 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $71 +$36 +51%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $79 −$78 -98%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 10 $200 −$21 -11%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $203 −$200 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $123 −$79 -64%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 06 $100 −$8 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 06 $160 −$116 -72%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $145 −$3 -2%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 03 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $132 −$3 -3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $202 +$137 +67%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $72 −$8 -12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $202 −$199 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $220 −$220 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $200 +$25 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $200 −$130 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $400 +$53 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $250 −$39 -16%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Apr 20 $56 +$44 +79%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5 Apr 19 $100 +$63 +63%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Apr 19 $170 −$168 -99%
VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 14.5 Apr 19 $77 −$76 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $110 +$131 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Swit BUY 16¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $101 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $132 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 25¢ $51 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $100 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $51 23h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners AND Will Colombia win on BUY 48¢ $125 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. BUY 19¢ $56 31h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 18¢ $87 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 14¢ $51 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 28¢ $148 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $102 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $91 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $295 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $51 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06- BUY 32¢ $85 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 75¢ $151 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $132 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 71¢ $141 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $152 5d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $44 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $100 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 35¢ $76 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $91 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $622.56 · official $672.56 · 770 history records