Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf353…6685 crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3342 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81,322 (+121%) realized +$81,319 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate51%88W / 85L
Whale WR16%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day3342.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$201
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3342 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 3% -9.5%
≤30d 173 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 173 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 3% -9.5%
all 173 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3342.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 3% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -29.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -36.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 16% (≥$522) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$81,319
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses88 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)173 / 157
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$427
Trades / day3342.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 53¢ 48¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 57¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $580 −$20 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $234 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $145 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $335 +$25 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $443 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $614 −$14 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $264 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $351 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $695 −$15 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $391 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $409 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $630 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $358 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $615 −$15 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $697 −$17 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $340 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $395 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $346 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $435 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $675 −$35 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $403 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $424 −$64 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $479 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $727 −$7 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $166 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $239 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $358 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $350 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $345 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $726 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $701 −$21 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $527 −$7 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $347 +$13 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $39 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $37 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $37 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $37 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $37 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $32 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $27 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.87 · official $50.67 (match) · 3500 history records