Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf353…692a sports 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$196 (-1%) realized +$4 · open −$200
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$458
7 days−$441
14 days+$141
30 days+$1,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$267
other 18% −$674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -26.5% -33.5% 47% 47% -21.3%
≤30d 43 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 53% +3.4%
≤90d 83 -12.4% -20.8% 46% 46% -13.2%
all 83 -12.4% -20.8% 46% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 46% -13.2%
10% -28.4% 45% -21.5%
15% -35.3% 45% -29.1%
20% -41.6% 43% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$196 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$200
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 45
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage44d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 50¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $253 −$250 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $203 +$142 +70%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 24 $253 +$123 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $303 +$166 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $304 +$188 +62%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $303 +$158 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $253 +$164 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $253 +$128 +51%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $203 +$142 +70%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $204 +$536 +262%
Set Handicap: Kokkinakis (-1.5) vs Kym (+1.5) Jun 16 $203 +$183 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$205 +101%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $255 +$434 +170%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $202 +$128 +63%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $202 +$131 +64%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $203 +$181 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$161 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $204 +$401 +197%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $203 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $529 +$436 +82%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 31 $203 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $305 +$408 +134%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $203 +$168 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $41 −$41 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $304 +$262 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $172 +$174 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $305 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $203 +$213 +105%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5) May 25 $202 +$117 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $401 −$396 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $244 +$157 +64%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $204 +$28 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $203 25m
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 64¢ $253 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 52¢ $152 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 18h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $203 39h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL Yes 99¢ $375 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $253 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $202 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $102 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 10d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 10d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $203 11d
Set Handicap: Kokkinakis (-1.5) vs Kym (+1.5) BUY Kym 52¢ $203 11d
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 27¢ $204 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $202 12d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $203 13d
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Felix Balshaw 63¢ $202 13d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $333 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 135 history records