Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf355…a532 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%3W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$8
world 13% −$2
other 9% −$1
culture 8% −$2
crypto 8% $0
sports 8% −$2
tech 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 37 +0.1% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 37 +0.1% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$839) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage89d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Jun 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,200 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,172 $0 +0%
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $62 $0 -0%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Jun 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 22 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 20 $807 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 20 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18? May 19 $19 +$1 +7%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 18 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 7? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $145 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $135 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Yeom Tae-yeong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elect Mar 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 42h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 42h
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $40 43h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $766 43h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $299 43h
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $13 43h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 43h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $42 2d
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 2d
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $809 2d
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $261 2d
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,071 2d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,124 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $33 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 3d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,087 3d
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $33 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,088 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $82 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records