Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf356…211a
other · 12 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$205 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$199 · open +$67
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$194
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage270d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 44¢ 78¢ $100 $176 +$76 (+76%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 1¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-83%)
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $200 +$21 +10%
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the re Jun 08 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $93 −$89 -95%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 11 $150 +$61 +41%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $103 −$103 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jan 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% +$81
other 31% −$1
economics 25% −$211
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.8% -5.2% 50% 25% -4.9%
≤30d 5 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 20% -17.2%
≤90d 6 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 33% -9.2%
all 9 -26.5% -33.5% 44% 22% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 22% -25.2%
10% -39.9% 22% -32.4%
15% -45.7% 22% -38.9%
20% -51.0% 11% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.20 · official $194.20 (match) · 17 history records