Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F3 0xf357…bc47 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$75 (+27%) realized +$60 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$66
crypto 17% +$15
sports 11% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +38.8% +25.6% 60% 60% +42.6%
≤30d 5 +38.8% +25.6% 60% 60% +42.6%
≤90d 5 +38.8% +25.6% 60% 60% +42.6%
all 5 +38.8% +25.6% 60% 60% +42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.6% 60% +42.6%
10% +13.5% 60% +29.0%
15% +2.6% 60% +16.5%
20% -7.5% 60% +5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$9 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.84 per $1 lost it wins $4.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 76¢ $45 $60 +$15 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$34 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +60%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 +$27 +259%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $46 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 38h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.36 · official $160.36 (match) · 11 history records