Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf359…1ab0 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$97 (-24%) realized −$47 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$40
other 5% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -13.8%
≤30d 12 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -13.8%
≤90d 12 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -13.8%
all 12 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 33% -13.8%
10% -47.0% 33% -22.1%
15% -52.1% 33% -29.6%
20% -56.8% 25% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ 23¢ $117 $68 −$50 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND United States Jun 19 $4 +$7 +163%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $69 +$70 +101%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.53 · official $108.12 · 21 history records