Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf35a…1ed5 other 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 215L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$40
sports 23% −$20
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$2
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 162 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 228 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage139d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $929 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 28 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 27 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $197 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 27 $131 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $380 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 26 $268 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 25 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $50 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 25 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $339 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $668 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $167 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $444 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $834 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $284 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $182 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $330 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $769 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 13m
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 3h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 5h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 12h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 12h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 13h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 15h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 22h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 24h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 25h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 27h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 28h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 30h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 31h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 32h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 35h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 37h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $49 41h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $49 42h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 44h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 46h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 46h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1396 history records