Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:11:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf35d…4fc6
other · 38 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$337 -42%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$283 · open −$54
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$51
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)28 / 38
History coverage157d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 10 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 22¢ $76 $30 −$47 (-61%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 51¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Yes 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Switzerland 18¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Yes 10¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting? Yes 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the US strike Iran next? Yes 17¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? No 25¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Yes 35¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Yes 63¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will Trump and Machado handshake last 15 seconds or longer? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump and Machado handshake last 6–10 seconds? Yes 27¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Yes 22¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $80 +$17 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $83 +$80 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 −$48 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $26 +$23 +90%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $18 +$23 +129%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $14 +$32 +223%
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont Feb 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 390m Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Machado handshake last 15 seconds or longer? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Machado handshake last 10–15 seconds? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Machado handshake last 6–10 seconds? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% −$113
other 41% −$99
world 13% −$104
culture 2% −$12
politics 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $77 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $10 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $80 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $163 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $83 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 34h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $26 46h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $99 2d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 65d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 66d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 66d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 68d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $38 87d
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela BUY Venezuela 31¢ $14 88d
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont BUY Yes $6 126d
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 126d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 135d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 135d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 135d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 135d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 135d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 135d
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? BUY Yes $1 135d
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 135d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 135d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 390m BUY Yes $1 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -43.6% -49.0% 33% 33% -32.7%
≤30d 9 -43.6% -49.0% 33% 33% -32.7%
≤90d 15 -19.0% -26.7% 40% 40% -31.9%
all 28 -56.6% -60.7% 21% 21% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 21% -47.0%
10% -64.5% 18% -52.1%
15% -67.9% 18% -56.7%
20% -71.1% 18% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.18 · official $51.14 (match) · 46 history records