Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F3 0xf35e…1635 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$280 (+35%) realized +$301 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +136% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +113% what you keep after slip
Net edge+113%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$379
14 days+$379
30 days+$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$63
sports 45% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+113.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +154.0% +129.9% 54% 54% +69.4%
≤30d 13 +154.0% +129.9% 54% 54% +69.4%
≤90d 13 +154.0% +129.9% 54% 54% +69.4%
all 14 +135.9% +113.4% 50% 50% +37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +113.4% 50% +37.7%
10% +93.0% 50% +24.5%
15% +74.4% 50% +12.5%
20% +57.3% 50% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +136% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +287% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$45 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$301
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)14 / 23
History coverage129d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$10 +96%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$205 +1331%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $85 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $20 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 19¢ $100 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.57 · official $242.58 (match) · 30 history records