Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf35f…c344 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-5%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%50W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$3
crypto 9% −$7
other 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 55% -12.0%
≤30d 83 +2.2% -7.6% 60% 54% -13.6%
≤90d 83 +2.2% -7.6% 60% 54% -13.6%
all 83 +2.2% -7.6% 60% 54% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 54% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 43% -21.9%
15% -24.5% 34% -29.4%
20% -31.9% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses50 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOS 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs FlyQuest 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will LGD Gaming win BLAST Slam VII? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Vivo Keyd Stars 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner LGD Gaming 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Level UP 83¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Anyones Legend 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Level UP 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$4 +84%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$2 +226%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $9 −$7 -77%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $2 +$1 +51%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $1 +$1 +139%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$1 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -27%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $4 −$3 -74%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $12 −$6 -50%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +78%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame (BO3) - The International North America Open Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2 +$1 +66%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $4 +$2 +47%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 10 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $4 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $9 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 71¢ $3 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $2 5h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $3 5h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL VP.Prodigy 50¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL 4ikibamboni 32¢ $1 7h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $2 7h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $3 8h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 66¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 65¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY 4ikibamboni 23¢ $1 13h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 53¢ $3 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $3 13h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $4 13h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $3 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 25h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $2 26h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 95¢ $2 26h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Cloud9 1¢ $0 26h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 31¢ $1 27h
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL BALU 24¢ $1 27h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $2 28h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 62¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records