Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf363…3857 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,864 (+30%) realized +$2,863 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$152
14 days−$152
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% +$2,471
other 25% +$313
world 19% +$362
crypto 7% −$83
sports 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -45.2% -50.4% 50% 0% -29.1%
≤30d 2 -45.2% -50.4% 50% 0% -29.1%
≤90d 2 -45.2% -50.4% 50% 0% -29.1%
all 28 -1.1% -10.6% 61% 50% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 50% +19.6%
10% -19.1% 36% +8.2%
15% -26.9% 25% -2.3%
20% -34.1% 21% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$88 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$801
Realized+$2,863
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage605d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $501 +$48 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Feb 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Feb 26 $132 −$132 -100%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? Feb 26 $19 −$19 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 26 $100 +$15 +15%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 26 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 14 $246 +$154 +63%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 20 $50 +$10 +21%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 20 $50 +$18 +37%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? Jan 20 $47 +$53 +113%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $111 −$25 -23%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $300 +$61 +20%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Jan 01 $300 +$82 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $674 −$83 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Jan 01 $252 +$483 +192%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 24 $34 +$26 +75%
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 22 $255 +$45 +18%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 20 $162 +$38 +24%
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? Dec 19 $13 −$13 -97%
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31? Dec 19 $100 −$93 -93%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Dec 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30? Dec 01 $200 +$8 +4%
Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO? Oct 28 $200 +$374 +187%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $4,333 +$2,380 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $203 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 24h
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $100 135d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $100 135d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $100 135d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 154d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 158d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $85 159d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 160d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $100 160d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 160d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $50 160d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 176d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $49 176d
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? BUY No 47¢ $47 176d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? BUY No 61¢ $55 178d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? BUY No 61¢ $6 178d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? BUY No 61¢ $61 178d
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $10 179d
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $60 179d
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $62 180d
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 186d
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 186d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 186d
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? BUY Yes 85¢ $255 187d
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $102 188d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $162 188d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.67 · official $800.67 (match) · 82 history records