Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf369…8283 crypto 1027 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,187 (-6%) realized −$840 · open −$347
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%577W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,877
sports 5% −$291
other 3% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -21.7% -29.2% 47% 47% -8.6%
≤30d 250 -6.6% -15.5% 31% 26% -14.1%
≤90d 955 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 35% -18.3%
all 1022 +3.3% -6.6% 56% 35% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 35% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 25% -26.1%
15% -23.7% 18% -33.3%
20% -31.2% 12% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$840
Unrealized−$347
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses577 / 445
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1022 / 1027
History coverage114d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1022 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 62¢ 34¢ $385 $207 −$177 (-46%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 44¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 24¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 32¢ 0¢ $157 $0 −$157 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $123 +$77 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $145 −$144 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $328 +$130 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 +$21 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$7 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $17 −$14 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $9 −$8 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $9 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$22 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $12 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 02 $12 −$9 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $23 −$21 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$10 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$9 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $14 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $13 −$10 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $13 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $14 −$12 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $12 +$33 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 01 $11 +$36 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $24 −$19 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 01 $12 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $23 −$11 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 67¢ $74 48m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 71¢ $215 51m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 47¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 47¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 47¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 32¢ $160 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $145 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $123 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $101 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $252 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $76 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $23 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 70¢ $50 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.60 · official $295.34 · 3201 history records