Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf36c…49e5 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized −$23 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate71%53W / 22L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,857per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$3,312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$86
14 days−$905
30 days−$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$113
sports 11% +$74
tech 7% +$44
crypto 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.4% -28.0% 62% 12% -11.2%
≤30d 31 -13.1% -21.4% 71% 35% -12.1%
≤90d 53 -5.6% -14.6% 79% 38% -9.4%
all 75 -14.5% -22.6% 71% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 27% -9.5%
10% -30.0% 8% -18.2%
15% -36.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -43.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$92 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$3,312
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses53 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage168d
Avg bet$1,857
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 84¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,190 +$190 (+19%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,034 +$34 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,000 $997 −$3 (-0%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 10¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-99%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? No 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-2.5) Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? No 80¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Paraguay 92¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Avalanche Avalanche 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? No 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? No 93¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-03? No 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? No 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? No 13¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,101 +$48 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $123 +$12 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +43%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $101 −$26 -26%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $786 −$679 -86%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 02 $701 +$24 +3%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $701 +$28 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $100 −$28 -28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $29 +$5 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $101 +$31 +30%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-2.5) May 24 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,004 +$132 +13%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 23 $76 −$74 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $100 +$16 +16%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 19 $1,005 +$188 +19%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1,001 +$32 +3%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) May 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,001 +$25 +2%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $886 +$9 +1%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $8,000 +$8 +0%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 13 $101 +$32 +31%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $111 +$6 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 09 $3 +$4 +139%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $121 +$19 +16%
Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-2.5) May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $101 +$20 +20%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $8,000 +$16 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $8,254 +$8 +0%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 04 $823 +$21 +3%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 04 $1,990 +$183 +9%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? May 04 $7,982 +$68 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $92 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $1,005 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,001 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 98¢ $2,001 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $100 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 33h
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $103 35h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $134 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 91¢ $123 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $145 2d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $1,002 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $101 3d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL South Africa 62¢ $75 3d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY South Africa 82¢ $101 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? SELL No 13¢ $107 11d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 93¢ $786 11d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 12d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Wales 97¢ $701 12d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 96¢ $701 13d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 80¢ $101 13d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 65¢ $72 13d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 89¢ $100 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 85¢ $29 14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 68¢ $101 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 15d
Will Qatar win on 2026-05-28? BUY No 88¢ $100 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,312.16 · official $3,312.16 (match) · 170 history records