Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf36e…c616 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-7%) realized −$59 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$93
other 24% −$74
sports 5% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 21% -23.9%
≤30d 28 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 21% -23.9%
≤90d 28 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 21% -23.9%
all 28 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 21% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 21% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 18% -31.2%
15% -53.0% 11% -37.9%
20% -57.6% 7% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$39 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $82 −$27 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +194%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Rodri: 1+ shots Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Moisés Caicedo: 1+ assists Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$28 +549%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes $5 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.59 · official $28.59 (match) · 56 history records