Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf36f…e5b8 sports 591 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,043 (+6%) realized +$2,092 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%325W / 264L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days−$48
14 days+$346
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,833
other 14% +$128
crypto 1% +$36
politics 0% −$115
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.7% -21.1% 55% 45% -13.0%
≤30d 49 -10.5% -19.0% 55% 53% -2.9%
≤90d 145 +9.2% -1.2% 61% 60% +1.7%
all 589 +6.0% -4.1% 55% 55% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 55% -4.3%
10% -13.3% 54% -13.4%
15% -21.6% 53% -21.8%
20% -29.3% 50% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$54 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$2,092
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses325 / 264
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions2
Markets (closed)589 / 591
History coverage210d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 43¢ $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $125 −$25 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $177 +$80 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $212 +$97 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $130 +$87 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $45 +$23 +50%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $153 +$6 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$79 -78%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$33 -33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$33 +58%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $57 −$55 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 +$8 +15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$22 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$70 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $68 +$112 +165%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $56 +$12 +22%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $56 +$28 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $54 +$62 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $56 +$54 +97%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots Jun 12 $76 +$45 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $101 +$48 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 09 $151 +$60 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $157 +$89 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 08 $91 +$34 +38%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 06 $99 −$99 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $153 +$162 +106%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 05 $306 +$155 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $68 +$23 +34%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 31 $44 +$24 +55%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to Score May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 26 $79 +$33 +42%
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to Score May 24 $66 +$31 +48%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $51 +$48 +93%
Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $66 +$52 +79%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score May 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 3.5 May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 24 $46 −$46 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 21 $49 +$32 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $152 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $257 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $177 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $212 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $216 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $55 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $75 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $159 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $45 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $153 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over $21 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $2 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $68 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $89 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $57 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $57 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $65 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $56 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $79 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $56 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over $33 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $68 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 84¢ $68 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.47 · official $267.65 · 1227 history records