Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf373…ac51
world · 40 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$12 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage292d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 0 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $35 +$8 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $5 $0 +10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 09 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $31 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 02 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$10
other 27% +$2
politics 11% −$1
culture 9% $0
finance 7% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $11 3h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $4 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 3¢ $2 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $34 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $9 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 18% -4.9%
≤30d 16 +4.6% -5.3% 44% 12% -7.0%
≤90d 16 +4.6% -5.3% 44% 12% -7.0%
all 40 +4.1% -5.8% 35% 8% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 8% -8.2%
10% -14.8% 5% -17.0%
15% -23.0% 5% -25.0%
20% -30.6% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records