Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf374…ce1a other 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,620 (-7%) realized −$22,905 · open −$2,715
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate68%114W / 54L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,082per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$1,164est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$37,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$8,914
sports 27% +$3,781
world 19% −$3,090
politics 11% −$2,853
crypto 3% +$2,272
economics 1% −$58
tech 1% −$336
culture 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +23.8% +12.0% 50% 42% +9.4%
≤30d 81 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 37% -2.3%
≤90d 117 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 34% -4.5%
all 168 -6.1% -15.0% 68% 30% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 30% -5.3%
10% -23.2% 17% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here -30.6% 11% -22.6%
20% -37.4% 7% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$419 vs −$687 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$37,324
Realized−$22,905
Unrealized−$2,715
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses114 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1,164
Open positions16
Markets (closed)168 / 184
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$2,082
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $5,000 $8,455 +$3,455 (+69%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $6,950 $6,949 −$1 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $6,637 $6,800 +$163 (+2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 99¢ 100¢ $4,950 $4,998 +$48 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $2,715 $2,896 +$181 (+7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $5,000 $1,545 −$3,455 (-69%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 82¢ 100¢ $820 $1,000 +$180 (+22%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $932 $960 +$29 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $931 $937 +$6 (+1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $621 $685 +$65 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1,050 $665 −$385 (-37%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $592 +$427 (+259%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $159 $202 +$44 (+27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $161 $200 +$39 (+24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $197 $188 −$9 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $148 $135 −$13 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $149 $116 −$33 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $326 −$27 -8%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $636 −$12 -2%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $72 +$28 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10,474 +$6,441 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,593 −$3,020 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $6,443 +$694 +11%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $2,445 +$55 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $667 +$2,755 +413%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,682 +$4,554 +170%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,001 −$690 -69%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7,292 −$7,197 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $1,659 +$341 +21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,239 +$424 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $590 −$386 -65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,649 −$1,610 -98%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Jun 14 $445 −$2 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $753 +$247 +33%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $961 −$151 -16%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $1,005 +$195 +19%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $592 +$208 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $395 −$395 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $940 +$60 +6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $173 +$64 +37%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $22,339 +$1,445 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $76 +$24 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $45 +$55 +122%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $2,266 +$70 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$4 -13%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $2,005 +$22 +1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $890 +$65 +7%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 10 $980 +$20 +2%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 10 $2,821 +$419 +15%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 09 $100 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $205 +$31 +15%
Lyon: Calvin Hemery vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 09 $970 −$20 -2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $420 +$80 +19%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,011 +$637 +63%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 08 $3,570 +$1,142 +32%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1,157 −$983 -85%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $431 −$430 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $402 +$60 +15%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3,101 +$653 +21%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,383 −$1,380 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $520 +$431 +83%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $510 −$225 -44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $472 +$23 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $3,187 29m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $99 30m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $349 31m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $34 32m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $454 33m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $91 35m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $93 37m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $69 37m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $2 37m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $158 37m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $11 37m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $137 37m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $40 38m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $121 39m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $9 39m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $9 39m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $2 40m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $63 40m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $20 40m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 64¢ $13 45m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 64¢ $17 45m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 64¢ $23 46m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 64¢ $90 46m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 61¢ $35 46m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 55¢ $122 49m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $196 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $37 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $70 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,323.73 · official $37,324.73 (match) · 3500 history records