Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf376…e767 crypto 800 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+0%) realized +$246 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%743W / 41L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$27
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$125
weather 34% +$75
other 1% −$10
finance 0% −$10
sports 0% +$2
tech 0% −$6
politics 0% −$50
culture 0% +$2
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 4% -9.3%
≤30d 159 -1.4% -10.8% 94% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 452 -2.0% -11.4% 93% 2% -9.4%
all 784 -1.1% -10.5% 95% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.09 per $1 lost it wins $5.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$1,295
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses743 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)784 / 800
History coverage258d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $440 $439 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $401 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+99%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? No 91¢ 86¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31? No 76¢ 74¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 94¢ 86¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+182%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$50 (-99%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+498%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? Jun 21 $397 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $524 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? Jun 20 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $467 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $330 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $216 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $246 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $285 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $398 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $401 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $406 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $177 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $711 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $282 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? Jun 14 $19 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $774 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $834 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $349 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $25 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $200 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $301 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $98 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $65 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $67 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $140 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $271 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $102 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $144 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,295.16 · official $1,295.17 (match) · 2187 history records