Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf37d…a88b sports 68 markets active 7d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$555 (+19%) realized +$555 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%31W / 29L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$306
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$342
other 32% +$177
crypto 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 47 -15.1% -23.2% 51% 51% +10.4%
≤90d 60 -17.5% -25.3% 52% 48% +8.2%
all 60 -17.5% -25.3% 52% 48% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 48% +8.2%
10% -32.5% 42% -2.1%
15% -39.0% 30% -11.6%
20% -45.0% 27% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$18 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$555
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses31 / 29
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 68
History coverage31d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$12 +59%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$23 -91%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +118%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots Jun 15 $20 +$13 +66%
Alexander Isak: 4+ shots Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $19 +$21 +110%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Enner Valencia: 3+ shots Jun 14 $23 −$22 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $50 +$31 +63%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $460 +$482 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 +$3 +19%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $14 +$3 +24%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $30 +$35 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $24 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $12 +$12 +99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $8 +$5 +59%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs SwimTrek Blue (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Nort Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$5 +75%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $9 +$2 +26%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $8 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $6 +$6 +97%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 02 $17 −$17 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $9 +$8 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Al Nassr Saudi Club leading at halftime? May 21 $625 +$286 +46%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser May 21 $581 +$39 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain ( BUY 1¢ $7 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY 2¢ $17 9d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND BUY 8¢ $36 10d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $45 11d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: England BUY 5¢ $22 11d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $22 11d
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $14 11d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $20 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $20 11d
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots BUY Yes 35¢ $5 11d
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $14 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 11d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $32 11d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $29 11d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 6¢ $2 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $12 11d
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 11d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $20 11d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 11d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $20 11d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 11d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 68¢ $25 11d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $32 13d
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $20 13d
Alexander Isak: 4+ shots BUY Yes 51¢ $20 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $39 13d
Enner Valencia: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $23 13d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $19 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $81 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records