Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F3 0xf380…5858 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$466 (+9%) realized +$659 · open −$193

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,042per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+31.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+44.8%	+31.0%	100%	100%	+31.9%
≤30d	3	+44.8%	+31.0%	100%	100%	+31.9%
≤90d	3	+44.8%	+31.0%	100%	100%	+31.9%
all	3	+44.8%	+31.0%	100%	100%	+31.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.0%	100%	+31.9%
10%	+18.5%	100%	+19.3%
15%	+7.0%	67%	+7.8%
20%	-3.5%	67%	-2.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$542 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage

Net worth$787

Realized+$659

Unrealized−$193

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage19d

Avg bet$1,042

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$980	$787	−$193 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,823	+$1,023	+56%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$1,106	+$266	+24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$620	+$336	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$553	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	97¢	$264	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	97¢	$124	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	97¢	$97	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	95¢	$504	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$104	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$53	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$25	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$100	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$93	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$64	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$9	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$3	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$31	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	91¢	$19	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	86¢	$507	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	78¢	$296	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,823	4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$132	5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$752	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	95¢	$956	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$620	18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$621	18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	70¢	$483	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1,106	19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1,179	19d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $786.88 · official $786.88 (match) · 47 history records