Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf382…be0e other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,432 (+16%) realized +$1,476 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%28W / 127L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$70
14 days−$177
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$251
tech 18% −$39
sports 15% +$1,765
finance 15% −$136
politics 9% +$61
world 3% −$93
weather 1% −$2
culture 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -31.7% -38.2% 18% 5% -16.3%
≤30d 42 +23.1% +11.4% 26% 14% -13.5%
≤90d 155 +13.8% +2.9% 18% 9% +6.2%
all 155 +13.8% +2.9% 18% 9% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 9% +6.2%
10% -6.9% 6% -4.0%
15% -15.9% 6% -13.3%
20% -24.1% 4% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$10 · ×8.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized+$1,476
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses28 / 127
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions9
Markets (closed)155 / 165
History coverage88d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Yes 44¢ 37¢ $131 $111 −$20 (-16%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 32¢ $48 $108 +$60 (+125%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 57¢ $103 $98 −$6 (-6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 37¢ 22¢ $87 $53 −$34 (-39%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? No 53¢ 87¢ $27 $44 +$17 (+63%)
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 14¢ 8¢ $57 $33 −$24 (-41%)
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? No 56¢ 43¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-24%)
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? Yes 36¢ 8¢ $36 $8 −$28 (-76%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? No 55¢ 33¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $38 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $45 −$4 -9%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Cur Jun 20 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $99 +$46 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $122 −$21 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $63 −$9 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Jun 18 $162 −$1 -0%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 18 $79 +$6 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$23 -88%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$7 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $27 −$25 -92%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$24 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $376 +$5 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $180 −$32 -18%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $108 −$5 -5%
Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Jun 08 $77 −$32 -42%
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her Jun 08 $149 −$21 -14%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 06 $57 +$8 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $100 +$186 +186%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $65 −$62 -96%
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by June 30? May 29 $50 −$33 -66%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 28 $6 +$5 +75%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $121 −$120 -100%
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and H May 23 $123 +$57 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $223 −$3 -1%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 23 $87 +$22 +25%
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth May 22 $140 +$58 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $155 +$24 +15%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 21 $51 +$99 +194%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $96 −$95 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 18 $60 −$7 -12%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $91 −$67 -74%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 17 $86 −$7 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $0 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $1 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $1 1h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $4 3h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $8 3h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $10 3h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $1 3h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $12 5h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $12 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 8h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $41 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 10h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 10h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $58 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.59 · official $478.60 (match) · 1025 history records