Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:59:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf387…ffe4 politics 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
politics 25% $0
world 21% −$7
finance 6% $0
culture 6% −$3
sports 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 27% 9% -11.3%
all 43 -0.0% -9.6% 35% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -10.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage329d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $55 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $34 −$8 -23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $2 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on August 5 at 5PM ET Aug 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 05 $2 $0 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 01 $57 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $39 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $39 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $38 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $38 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $13 32d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $13 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $26 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $26 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $2 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $3 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $15 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $12 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $5 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $35 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $34 35d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 36d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 36d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $45 36d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $46 36d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.02 · official $36.02 (match) · 149 history records