Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf388…5c83 crypto 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,036 (+6%) realized +$1,086 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%63W / 44L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202
7 days−$202
14 days−$202
30 days+$553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$544
sports 9% −$27
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -15.1% -23.2% 51% 51% -24.3%
≤30d 107 +10.6% +0.1% 59% 56% -6.5%
≤90d 107 +10.6% +0.1% 59% 56% -6.5%
all 107 +10.6% +0.1% 59% 56% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 56% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 47% -15.5%
15% -18.3% 36% -23.6%
20% -26.3% 25% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$144 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized+$1,086
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses63 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions23
Markets (closed)107 / 130
History coverage30d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 73¢ 100¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+37%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 70¢ 87¢ $43 $54 +$10 (+24%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Amaru Gaming 35¢ 100¢ $18 $50 +$32 (+185%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 37¢ 38¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 55¢ 34¢ $70 $45 −$26 (-37%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 36¢ 16¢ $78 $34 −$44 (-56%)
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 70¢ 100¢ $21 $31 +$9 (+43%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 69¢ 76¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 69¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+23%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Over 34¢ 32¢ $22 $21 −$2 (-7%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 67¢ 84¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 82¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 54¢ 94¢ $9 $15 +$7 (+74%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Scotland 46¢ 33¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-29%)
Will New Zealand win? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 58¢ 11¢ $44 $8 −$36 (-81%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+108%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 62¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Minnesota Twins 64¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 78¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 52¢ 6¢ $21 $2 −$19 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $16 +$9 +54%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $12 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $15 +$8 +53%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $23 −$17 -73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $16 +$7 +42%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$24 +48%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $12 +$4 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$53 +104%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$11 -21%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $45 +$20 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$9 +44%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $50 +$7 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $50 +$17 +34%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $3 +$5 +158%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $4 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $6 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $149 −$138 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $84 −$83 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $51 −$36 -71%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou Jun 18 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 29 $103 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 29 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $102 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 29 $103 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $304 +$73 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 29 $304 +$67 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 29 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 29 $26 +$24 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $3 2m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $9 5m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 5m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 6m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 7m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 67¢ $2 10m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 67¢ $1 10m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $9 12m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $9 12m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $10 12m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $3 12m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $10 13m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $6 13m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 18m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $3 18m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $10 18m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 61¢ $2 18m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $10 18m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 18m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 78¢ $2 29m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 33m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $6 35m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 25¢ $7 38m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $18 49m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 38¢ $51 49m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 64¢ $7 51m
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 70¢ $22 52m
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 68¢ $15 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.32 · official $574.68 (match) · 2026 history records