Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf38d…73a3 crypto 49 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$192 (-9%) realized −$192 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$350
14 days−$282
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$359
crypto 26% −$66
sports 21% +$206
tech 16% +$17
other 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.0% -34.9% 44% 19% -27.9%
≤30d 49 -19.3% -27.0% 45% 27% -9.9%
≤90d 49 -19.3% -27.0% 45% 27% -9.9%
all 49 -19.3% -27.0% 45% 27% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 27% -9.9%
10% -34.0% 22% -18.6%
15% -40.4% 18% -26.4%
20% -46.2% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage26d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $239 −$207 -86%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $16 +$5 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$25 +82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $65 +$5 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $101 +$16 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $114 +$3 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $31 −$9 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $26 −$22 -86%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $283 +$90 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $260 +$23 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 31 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 31 $4 +$4 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $13 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $84 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 31 $81 +$2 +2%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 31 $20 +$89 +435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 21 $111 +$7 +6%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 21 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $103 −$21 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 2d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $32 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $32 3d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No $2 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No $1 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No $1 4d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 5d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 80¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 80¢ $30 5d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 87¢ $50 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 91¢ $56 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 49¢ $30 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $70 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $65 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $200 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $100 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 97¢ $110 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 89¢ $117 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 57¢ $117 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 24¢ $22 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL No $2 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records