Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F3 0xf38f…00fd other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$164 (-18%) realized −$169 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR37%break-even

Win rate41%11W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day18.9pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit31%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +37%

net ROI/market (all)-30.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-22.7%	-30.1%	41%	37%	-29.3%
≤30d	27	-22.7%	-30.1%	41%	37%	-29.3%
≤90d	27	-22.7%	-30.1%	41%	37%	-29.3%
all	27	-22.7%	-30.1%	41%	37%	-29.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.1%	37%	-29.3%
10%	-36.8%	30%	-36.1%
15%	-42.9%	26%	-42.2%
20%	-48.5%	19%	-47.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late -29% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized−$169

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses11 / 16

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage3d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day18.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	No	48¢	56¢	$30	$35	+$5 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Jun 28	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$51	+$18	+35%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$10	−$28	-273%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$41	−$13	-33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$61	+$11	+18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$36	+$32	+90%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$86	−$39	-45%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 28	$1	−$1	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$12	−$2	-14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$33	+$3	+8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 28	$61	−$44	-72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 28	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 28	$82	−$39	-47%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$35	+$8	+22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 27	$31	−$31	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 27	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$30	+$17	+57%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 27	$15	+$8	+53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$51	+$20	+39%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?	Jun 27	$40	−$1	-4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$10	+$7	+71%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$20	−$1	-6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$10	+$5	+48%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 26	$25	+$7	+28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY No	48¢	$30	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	58¢	$35	16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	60¢	$49	17h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	BUY Argentina	48¢	$30	17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	17h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY No	56¢	$30	17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	32¢	$72	18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	60¢	$68	18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	30¢	$35	18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$71	18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	SELL No	50¢	$12	19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	26¢	$61	19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	50¢	$27	19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	31¢	$36	19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	60¢	$15	19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$30	20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	4¢	$2	20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL No	74¢	$35	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL No	34¢	$11	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	20¢	$10	22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	15¢	$2	22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	47¢	$30	22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	38h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	82¢	$43	38h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	81¢	$25	38h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$10	39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	40h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	90¢	$23	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.31 · official $35.31 (match) · 72 history records