Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F3 0xf390…ab3d other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$317 (+43%) realized +$318 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$266
14 days+$266
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$99
sports 48% +$179
politics 4% −$9
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +22.8% +11.1% 54% 52% +30.0%
≤30d 50 +22.8% +11.1% 54% 52% +30.0%
≤90d 50 +22.8% +11.1% 54% 52% +30.0%
all 50 +22.8% +11.1% 54% 52% +30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.1% 52% +30.0%
10% ← realistic here +0.4% 46% +17.6%
15% -9.3% 42% +6.2%
20% -18.2% 32% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)50 / 60
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $35 $26 −$9 (-24%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 22¢ 33¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+53%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 44¢ 68¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+57%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $31 +$33 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $7 +$4 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June Jun 18 $5 +$2 +43%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $19 +$37 +198%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $20 −$20 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $10 −$10 -93%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $5 −$4 -74%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$4 +39%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$21 +145%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12 +$12 +99%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $26 +$5 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +133%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $7 +$4 +60%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $41 +$21 +52%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $15 −$8 -52%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $36 +$50 +141%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $61 +$149 +243%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$17 +540%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $7 +$8 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$15 +133%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 38m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 39m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 42m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 44m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 100¢ $64 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 37¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 39¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 48¢ $6 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 59¢ $5 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 58¢ $5 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 58¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June SELL Yes 25¢ $7 7h
Will England win? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 10h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 11h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $56 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 28h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June BUY Yes 22¢ $5 28h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.44 · official $95.44 (match) · 156 history records