Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf395…e8bc sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$39
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$17
other 5% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -2.7% -11.9% 42% 42% -7.8%
≤30d 68 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% -9.2%
≤90d 68 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% -9.2%
all 68 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 43% -9.2%
10% -20.9% 43% -17.9%
15% -28.5% 40% -25.8%
20% -35.5% 28% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 39
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage9d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $91 −$4 -5%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$5 -10%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $30 −$1 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $40 −$1 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 −$1 -3%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$13 +42%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 Jun 14 $41 +$34 +83%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 Jun 13 $30 +$14 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $20 +$14 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $30 +$13 +44%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Romano vs. Jones: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $30 +$18 +61%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $20 +$22 +109%
Bu vs. Riedi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $102 −$2 -2%
Set Handicap: Riedi (-1.5) vs Bu (+1.5) Jun 11 $61 −$2 -3%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Riedi (+1.5) Jun 11 $86 −$3 -3%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $25 $0 -2%
Bu vs. Riedi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $162 −$4 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $40 −$1 -2%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Fernandez/Siegemund vs. Mboko/Williams: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $30 −$7 -24%
Fernandez/Siegemund vs. Mboko/Williams: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $30 −$7 -24%
Romano vs. Jones: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5) Jun 11 $40 +$41 +101%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $30 +$14 +48%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $20 +$24 +119%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $20 +$20 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $30 +$15 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $19 +$20 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 49¢ $29 1h
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 50¢ $58 1h
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 1h
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 1h
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 83¢ $39 31h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 23¢ $9 31h
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) BUY Vekic 66¢ $30 31h
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) BUY Raducanu 37¢ $20 31h
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 34h
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 34h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 76¢ $30 35h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 34¢ $20 35h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 84¢ $40 35h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 35h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 2d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 70¢ $30 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $20 2d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) SELL Seattle Storm 100¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner BUY Wanted Goons 59¢ $10 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 BUY Under 68¢ $30 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 59¢ $51 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Seattle Storm 50¢ $51 3d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 75¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O BUY Modo Serio 19¢ $10 3d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 65¢ $10 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $20 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records