Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf399…adcc world 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%36W / 73L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$37
politics 19% −$17
other 19% −$3
sports 12% +$3
economics 4% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
finance 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +0.2% -9.3% 34% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 81 +1.8% -7.9% 35% 7% -9.4%
all 109 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses36 / 73
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 114
History coverage284d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $182 $182 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 66¢ 72¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+67%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $191 +$1 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $177 +$4 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $345 −$2 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $312 −$5 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $94 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $134 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $183 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $499 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $17 +$1 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $606 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$12 +30%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $175 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +17%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $159 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $170 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $185 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $206 +$3 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $292 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $163 −$7 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $317 +$15 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $189 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $218 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $293 +$15 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $176 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $53 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $136 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $137 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $278 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $137 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $163 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $7 $0 +5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $68 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $287 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $273 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $182 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $181 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $177 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $177 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $178 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $144 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $144 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $72 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $94 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $138 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $168 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.49 · official $181.72 (match) · 480 history records