Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf39d…aa9d sports 38 markets active 3h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$244 (-13%) realized −$226 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$200
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$205
politics 21% +$23
crypto 15% −$103
other 9% +$56
world 2% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -19.9% -27.5% 29% 26% -23.5%
≤30d 34 -19.9% -27.5% 29% 26% -23.5%
≤90d 34 -19.9% -27.5% 29% 26% -23.5%
all 37 -21.2% -28.7% 30% 24% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 24% -21.7%
10% -35.5% 24% -29.2%
15% -41.8% 22% -36.1%
20% -47.5% 22% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$32 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage382d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $64 −$4 -7%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $54 −$15 -28%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 +$79 +259%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$71 +223%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $29 +$56 +197%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $66 +$99 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$13 +35%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $64 −$63 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $64 −$63 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $64 −$63 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 −$63 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $68 −$66 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $33 +$113 +344%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $96 +$97 +101%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jun 28 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 28 $68 −$10 -15%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 02 $394 +$23 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $18 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 34¢ $39 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 44¢ $13 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $41 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 54¢ $56 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $110 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $31 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $61 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $29 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers 22¢ $36 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $165 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $66 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 75 history records