Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3a3…b6e9 crypto 648 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%277W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$71
other 6% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -1.9% -11.3% 45% 39% -13.0%
≤30d 76 -1.9% -11.3% 45% 39% -13.0%
≤90d 648 -1.0% -10.4% 43% 37% -13.8%
all 648 -1.0% -10.4% 43% 37% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 37% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 31% -22.0%
15% -26.8% 27% -29.6%
20% -34.0% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses277 / 371
Open positions0
Markets (closed)648 / 648
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 648 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -45%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -63%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -50%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -45%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2387 history records