Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3a3…9084 crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$358 (+0%) realized +$357 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%143W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,562per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$66
14 days+$120
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$336
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 70 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 143 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 143 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,149) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$2,335
Realized+$357
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses143 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage83d
Avg bet$1,562
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,334 $2,335 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $519 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $849 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $2,329 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $1,820 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $505 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,323 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,314 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,313 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $2,311 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,307 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $892 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $1,411 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,301 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $2,297 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,294 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $2,282 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,268 +$13 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $2,259 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $2,258 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,255 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2,249 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,249 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $2,245 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,235 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,230 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,226 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1,074 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,223 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2,217 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $681 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,533 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $2,211 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,208 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,206 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $2,204 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,202 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,200 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,196 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2,193 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $165 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $522 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,503 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,188 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $369 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,815 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,181 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $2,175 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,171 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $670 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,472 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $519 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $849 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $15 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,329 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $505 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $109 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,599 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,323 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,314 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,313 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $2,311 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,307 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,411 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $867 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,301 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,297 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,294 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $2,282 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,278 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $655 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,334.83 · official $2,334.83 (match) · 376 history records