Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F3 0xf3a4…097f sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103,262 (-28%) realized −$103,745 · open +$483
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,499per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2,036est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$25,483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,390
7 days+$7,195
14 days+$7,195
30 days−$82,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$112,141
other 27% −$468
sports 23% +$31,201
world 9% −$10,351
economics 4% +$658
tech 1% −$3,622
politics 1% −$2,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.8% -0.7% 53% 47% +10.3%
≤30d 27 +15.6% +4.5% 56% 52% -39.2%
≤90d 38 +6.8% -3.4% 53% 50% -36.9%
all 44 +4.2% -5.8% 52% 45% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 45% -34.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 41% -40.9%
15% -23.0% 32% -46.6%
20% -30.6% 25% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$7,244) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,228 vs −$8,164 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$25,483
Realized−$103,745
Unrealized+$483
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2,036
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage193d
Avg bet$7,499
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $10,000 $10,634 +$634 (+6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5,000 $4,962 −$38 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3,000 $2,978 −$22 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $3,000 $2,965 −$35 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2,500 $2,475 −$25 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1,500 $1,469 −$31 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,535 −$1,535 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,537 +$7,447 +484%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,067 +$3,457 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7,587 −$3,659 -48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,721 −$2,700 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,010 +$380 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9,068 +$3,191 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,023 +$1,255 +62%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,023 −$802 -78%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,078 +$4,504 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11,868 +$5,383 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21,202 −$8,087 -38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,029 −$772 -75%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5,072 +$134 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5,370 −$5,300 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $115,263 −$112,303 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $2,548 −$96 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $5,129 +$7,119 +139%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $10,237 +$9,649 +94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $2,040 +$4,051 +198%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10,171 +$11,415 +112%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $7,244 +$2,276 +31%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,055 −$2,000 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $5,047 +$2,250 +45%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $805 +$459 +57%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $6,901 −$6,800 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $3,966 +$2,307 +58%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $5,036 −$3,622 -72%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $4,025 +$1,038 +26%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $2,063 −$2,000 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 07 $4,000 −$660 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $10,000 −$6,968 -70%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $9,051 +$2,064 +23%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 30 $512 +$711 +139%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $5,036 −$5,036 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $6,920 +$3,423 +50%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 25 $1,279 −$1,279 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $7,004 −$1,789 -26%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $7,000 −$4,356 -62%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 28 $7,772 +$722 +9%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $5,000 +$850 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 23 $12,297 +$162 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $5,000 −$688 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $2,538 43m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,027 43m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $3,051 44m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $5,052 44m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,534 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,825 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,022 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,023 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,721 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,757 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 29h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $10,126 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $6,067 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $6,063 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $7,042 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $221 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,010 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,026 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,023 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5,063 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $17,251 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $11,868 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $663 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,483.01 · official $25,483.44 (match) · 169 history records