Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3a6…71bd sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,139 (-3%) realized −$2,143 · open +$1,004
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,436per market
Trades / day104.7pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$32,328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$994
other 39% −$1,194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.7% -3.5% 43% 43% -17.4%
≤30d 7 +6.7% -3.5% 43% 43% -17.4%
≤90d 7 +6.7% -3.5% 43% 43% -17.4%
all 7 +6.7% -3.5% 43% 43% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 43% -17.4%
10% -12.7% 43% -25.3%
15% ← realistic here -21.2% 43% -32.5%
20% -28.9% 43% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,683 vs −$1,563 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32,328
Realized−$2,143
Unrealized+$1,004
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,436
Trades / day104.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $13,513 $13,913 +$400 (+3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 48¢ $6,472 $7,063 +$591 (+9%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 42¢ $336 $348 +$12 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $5,741 +$4,733 +82%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $214 +$257 +120%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $41 +$59 +144%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1,645 −$40 -2%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $6,019 −$5,945 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $273 −$267 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $779 33m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $310 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $835 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $328 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $888 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $157 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 43m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,116 46m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $17 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $17 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $576 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $567 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $17 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $17 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $249 50m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $231 50m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 50m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 50m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $9 50m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $9 50m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $287 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,328.05 · official $32,182.42 (match) · 143 history records