Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3a6…dff7 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$845 (-55%) realized −$724 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$545
sports 31% −$313
crypto 7% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-60.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -55.9% -60.1% 22% 22% -63.0%
≤30d 9 -55.9% -60.1% 22% 22% -63.0%
≤90d 9 -55.9% -60.1% 22% 22% -63.0%
all 9 -55.9% -60.1% 22% 22% -63.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.1% 22% -63.0%
10% -63.9% 22% -66.5%
15% -67.4% 22% -69.8%
20% -70.6% 22% -72.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$113 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$724
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $401 $278 −$123 (-31%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$146 +140%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $86 −$84 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $195 −$190 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $102 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 59¢ $51 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 6h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $223 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $86 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $194 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $399 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.43 · official $379.82 (match) · 19 history records