Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3ac…e6b9 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-13%) realized −$59 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$68
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -16.1% -24.1% 38% 38% -27.5%
≤30d 32 -16.1% -24.1% 38% 38% -27.5%
≤90d 32 -16.1% -24.1% 38% 38% -27.5%
all 32 -16.1% -24.1% 38% 38% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 38% -27.5%
10% -31.4% 38% -34.5%
15% -38.0% 34% -40.8%
20% -44.1% 31% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 58¢ 60¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 50¢ 50¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: RED Canids vs la Masia (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $10 +$11 +119%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$25 +165%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA Eu Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $15 +$16 +107%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs Linx Legacy Esport (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligae Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$8 +86%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8 +$11 +134%
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$12 +206%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$20 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 +$7 +52%
Counter-Strike: Gaming By Legends vs Gatorian - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$2 -45%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Jo Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$6 +52%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Gatorian (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$3 -68%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 50¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 59¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 58¢ $10 1h
Valorant: RED Canids vs la Masia (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B BUY la Masia 54¢ $11 5h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 99¢ $21 5h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 44¢ $10 7h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 61¢ $30 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $40 7h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z Team 36¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA Eu BUY SNITKO Esports 61¢ $21 7h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL 100 Thieves 99¢ $32 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 37¢ $15 8h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 47¢ $15 9h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 62¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs Linx Legacy Esport (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligae BUY AaB Bulls 67¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $10 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 33¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $8 3d
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) SELL Millennium Esports 0¢ $0 3d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) SELL TDK 50¢ $8 3d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 60¢ $10 3d
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) BUY Millennium Esports 61¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 46¢ $10 5d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 54¢ $16 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs SELL STATE 100¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY STATE 72¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY Bebop 45¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.80 · official $83.51 (match) · 53 history records