Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

F3 0xf3ac…db07 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$17 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate88%15W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day31.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-10.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-0.5%	-10.0%	88%	12%	-8.3%
≤30d	17	-0.5%	-10.0%	88%	12%	-8.3%
≤90d	17	-0.5%	-10.0%	88%	12%	-8.3%
all	17	-0.5%	-10.0%	88%	12%	-8.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover31.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.0%	12%	-8.3%
10% ← realistic here	-18.6%	6%	-17.0%
15%	-26.5%	0%	-25.1%
20%	-33.7%	0%	-32.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

80% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.32 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$17

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses15 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day31.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 15	$56	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 15	$46	+$11	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 15	$40	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 15	$40	+$4	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 15	$35	+$5	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 15	$34	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 15	$34	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 15	$33	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 15	$32	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 15	$32	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 15	$32	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 15	$30	+$2	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 15	$29	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 15	$25	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 15	$25	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 15	$23	+$2	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$57	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$56	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$56	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$46	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$42	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$40	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$44	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$40	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$40	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$35	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$35	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$33	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$33	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$33	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$32	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$32	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$32	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$30	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$30	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$29	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$23	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records